Over time, in going through life the mind develops it's unique thinking patterns (mindset) as learned behaviours, influenced by the immediate surrounding and messages the mind receives from external influencers.
Behaviours learnt, comes to form the manner by which decision making will eventually be carried out.
Limited by time, the mind subconsciously develops frameworks and shortcuts to quickly through the process of decision making.
These mental shortcuts (heuristics), created to reduce the mental burden associated with decision making, relies on readily accessible information to establish a working framework to control decision making.
However efficient this may be, these reliable techniques of the mind has been blamed for many systematic errors involved in making decisions as most situations now, presents its own little unique peculiarities.
Intuitive judgement, educated guesses, profiling, stereotyping, guesstimating and the use of common sense are everyday instances of the use of frameworks to decision making.
Intuitive judgement, educated guesses, profiling, stereotyping, guesstimating and the use of common sense are everyday instances of the use of frameworks to decision making.
All of which are encapsulated into various decision-making heuristics by the mind, most prevalent of which are:
Influenced by Availability
We tend to be biased by the information that is easier to recall, swayed by information that is vivid, well-publicized or recent, we then use this information only to test hypothesis and correlate them into decision making.
For example, if the candidate, for instance, a Presidential election portrays himself (Availability) already as President during his campaigns, by his actions, images of this particular candidate been President looms more in the minds of voters than that of other candidates for the same position swaying the minds and attention unconsciously of voters to deciding in his favor.
A more recent illustration will be: After reading an article about lottery winners, as against losers who don't make disclosures of such happenings. You begin to overestimate your own likelihood of winning a jackpot, so much so as to start spending more money than you will each week on lottery tickets.
Availability heuristics operates on the notion that, if a choice can be recalled, it must be important or at least more important than the alternative to which are not readily recalled.
WHAT THEN IS A GOOD DECISION?
A common way individuals distinguish good decisions from not too good decisions is by accessing the eventual outcome of the decisions, which will be apparent much later.
For example, if the candidate, for instance, a Presidential election portrays himself (Availability) already as President during his campaigns, by his actions, images of this particular candidate been President looms more in the minds of voters than that of other candidates for the same position swaying the minds and attention unconsciously of voters to deciding in his favor.
Availability heuristics operates on the notion that, if a choice can be recalled, it must be important or at least more important than the alternative to which are not readily recalled.
Influenced by Scarcity
Humans place a higher value on things that are scarce and lower value on those that are in abundance. The scarcity of alcohol in the past gave it greater value then, as soon as it was legalized its value dropped significantly.
Many times we have used the availability of an item, it's perceived abundance, to quickly estimate it's value.
Many times we have used the availability of an item, it's perceived abundance, to quickly estimate it's value.
Scarcity heuristic stems from the idea that the more difficult it is to acquire an item the more value such item has.
Diamonds, for instance, are regarded as more valuable than rocks because diamonds are not as abundant.
Influenced by an Anchor
As seen in negotiations and estimation where we make counteroffers based on the anchor that is provided.
Influenced by Familiarity
In this case, we examine why individuals assume that the circumstances underlining past events and behaviours still holds true for present events and behaviours and that the past behaviour can be correctly applied to the new situation.
These and other thinking patterns play important roles in how we make decisions and act on information. They can be helpful tools but it is important to remember that they can sometimes lead to incorrect assessment.
Decision Making can be effortless when we are better informed.
Diamonds, for instance, are regarded as more valuable than rocks because diamonds are not as abundant.
Influenced by an Anchor
As seen in negotiations and estimation where we make counteroffers based on the anchor that is provided.
In this approach individuals anchor initially and then adjusts the estimate until a satisfactory answer is reached.
If asked to answer the question, in what year did John F Kennedy take office. The anchoring and adjustment heuristics would be used to decide on the answer.
We may start with a known date, such as the date he was shot Nov 22, 1963, then make an estimate based on the known information to arrive at an answer.
The possibilities of other factors and facts are ignored stereotyping event is then used in making decisions
We may start with a known date, such as the date he was shot Nov 22, 1963, then make an estimate based on the known information to arrive at an answer.
The possibilities of other factors and facts are ignored stereotyping event is then used in making decisions
Influenced by Familiarity
In this case, we examine why individuals assume that the circumstances underlining past events and behaviours still holds true for present events and behaviours and that the past behaviour can be correctly applied to the new situation.These and other thinking patterns play important roles in how we make decisions and act on information. They can be helpful tools but it is important to remember that they can sometimes lead to incorrect assessment.
WHAT THEN IS A GOOD DECISION?
A common way individuals distinguish good decisions from not too good decisions is by accessing the eventual outcome of the decisions, which will be apparent much later.
it should be emphasized that a decision is only as good as the information available at the time the decision is been made.
Because as human we handle a limited amount of stimuli simultaneously. In choosing we “choose” what to attend to and what to ignore.
In making decisions we should incorporate and weeds of all pitfalls of human processing system by so doing we find areas which need refinement and updates, enabling making decisions more open, free and better understood.
Knowing that every individual possesses these shortfalls in thinking processes, we should then be more vigilant in framing proper recognizing and filtering out all biases cannot be overemphasized.
This can be achieved by questioning assumptions, considering alternatives, putting our emotions in check in so doing, we break ambiguous decisions into a more rational and objective processing realm.
This can be achieved by questioning assumptions, considering alternatives, putting our emotions in check in so doing, we break ambiguous decisions into a more rational and objective processing realm.
These, in turn, will provide the judicial process with information, generating more alternatives and feedbacks which results in sound choices been formulated to create better Informed decisions.
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