ANALYSING CHOICES

 

What the future hold as to choices we make, for the most part is determined by our enlightenment about how we have been programmed in regards to taking decisions.

Life essentially unfolds as a fallout of choices made, most often by reasoned choices other times are consequences of irrational choices.

Growing up the responsibilities of taking decisions were the burden of parents to bear some of which we fault as adults.

Choosing Good over bad, Right against wrong could come easy and natural in a world of morality and principle.

The puzzle to fix here is, having to choose between complex choices, let me give two scenarios:
Having to choose between two uncertainties like two good/right choices or having to make a choice out of two wrong/bad choices popularly described as choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Having to choose Good or right over bad or wrong  could be justified on the basis of Morality and Principles, some other factors that further influences choices we make is key to understanding why such stance were made, some of which includes but are not limited to;

• Past Experiences on certain events that may or may not present itself in similar fashion but are perceived and interpreted as , based on previous encounters.

•  Thinking patterns and generalization that fuel belief biases and over dependency on prior knowledge at arriving on any choice, ignoring the big picture of endless possibilities.

• As cognitive function declines as a result of aging, choice making performances has been shown to decline as well. As older people may be more overconfident regarding their ability to make decisions, as there are evidences to support the notion that older adults prefer fewer choices than younger adults, thereby inhibiting their ability to apply more strategies and options in making more informed decisions.

• Another individual differences that affect choice making is the level of education, people with access to poor education and inadequate resources are susceptible to experiencing negative life event often beyond their control as a result make poor choices based on past choices.

• Believe in personal relevance is yet another factor influencing Choices as demonstrated in voting patterns, people will vote more readily when they believe their opinions are indicative of that of the general population as they have regards for their own importance in the outcome. Generally people will vote if they believe their vote will count.

     

• There is a human behavioural pattern in which an individual or group facing increasing negative
  outcome from choices made  sticks to the same  choices rather than alter these choices or go for the alternative to these choices, using resources spent on such choices made, as justification for sticking to the same choices as seen among gambling practices.

THE SCIENCE BEHIDE CHOICE MAKING 

A closer examination of choices made,  both reasoned and irrationally, is the subject of  a study by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, in this study they developed the Prospect Theory which elaborates on factors influencing choice making.

This Study examines biases created as a result of thinking patterns and other factors earlier mentioned as basis governing choice making.

Depending on individual risk tolerance level, individuals treat risk differently hence the differences in choices been made.

This Theory explains choices individuals would make into two:

1. Choices that contributes to gains;

2. Choices that contributes to losses.

Some of the psychological bases further elaborating on the process of choices making by individuals demonstrated in the Prospect Theory includes:

• Certainty Effect

• Isolation Effect

• Reflection Effect

CERTAINTY EFFECT:

When certainty is the case, people demonstrate typical risk aversion and go for the most favourable that presents little chances of loss. As a result of this way of reasoning people overweight options that are certain and risk adverse for gains.

However in making choices between two alternatives in which uncertainties lies on both alternatives risk taking is increased. Therefore when uncertainty is higher, people tend to take more risk (risk tolerance is high).

In making choices between two alternatives, individual tend to move towards the direction of choices they are certain will be of gain to them while ignoring that which is perceived as a certain loss, thereby reducing the chances of taking risky decisions (risk taking is reduced in this case).

ISOLATION EFFECT:

This is based on the premise that when multiple homogenous stimuli are presented, the stimuli that differ from the rest is more likely to be remembered and thus considered (as individuals have the tendency to act on information that stands out and differs from the rest) and is used to predict the choices people will  make.

REFLECTION EFFECT:

It examines the instances when individuals become risk averse when they have something to gain and are risk seeking when we have something to lose.

When certainty is the case we prefer to avoid losses to acquire equivalent gains, at instances were uncertainty is the case we strongly prefer to make choices that will mitigate loss on our part, there by displaying risk- seeking behaviours. This risk- averse versus risk seeking behaviour is called the Reflection Effect.